A possible third wave of Covid-19 may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, said a panel of scientists set up by government for modelling of COVID-19 cases.

The panel said that the deadly virus can hit its peak between October-November if COVID-appropriate behaviour is not followed.

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Manindra Agarwal, who is working with the Sutra Modelโ€“ the mathematical projection of the COVID-19 trajectory, further said that COVID infection can spread faster during the third wave if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges.

The panel was formed by the Union ministry of Science and Technology last year to predict the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.

M Vidyasagar, a scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, are other members of the panel.

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Agarwal, who is a scientist with IIT-Kanpur, said factors like the loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and the possibility of a more virulent variant have been taken into consideration while predicting the possible third wave, which was not done while modelling the second wave.

โ€œWe have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant,โ€ Agarwal said.

Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions, he said.

โ€œThe final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant),โ€ Agarwal tweeted.