A possible third wave of Covid-19 may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, said a panel of scientists set up by government for modelling of COVID-19 cases.
The panel said that the deadly virus can hit its peak between October-November if COVID-appropriate behaviour is not followed.
Manindra Agarwal, who is working with the Sutra Model– the mathematical projection of the COVID-19 trajectory, further said that COVID infection can spread faster during the third wave if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges.
The panel was formed by the Union ministry of Science and Technology last year to predict the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.
M Vidyasagar, a scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, are other members of the panel.
Agarwal, who is a scientist with IIT-Kanpur, said factors like the loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and the possibility of a more virulent variant have been taken into consideration while predicting the possible third wave, which was not done while modelling the second wave.
“We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant,” Agarwal said.
Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions, he said.
“The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant),” Agarwal tweeted.