Jyoti Prasad Chaliha

One of the interesting and intriguing features in the socio-politico-economic scenario in Assam for the last few decades since the late seventies of the last century has been that all the problems of Assam had no solution or had half-baked solutions which were no more than Pandora’s boxes creating more complex problems than the original problem.

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These Pandora’s boxes have been far worse than the original problem. One of the monumental examples is the historic 1985 Assam Accord which had been the outcome of six years of agitation. This Accord led Assam nowhere and finally with the enactment of CAA this accord had virtually been nullified. Another burning problem has been the big hydraulic projects in northern Assam and it is now almost a forgotten chapter. References had been made to these as Assam is going to have another half-baked solution emanating from the inexplicable haste with which the delimitation process for the assembly and parliamentary constituencies of Assam has been conducted.  

The process of delimitation of constituencies is a normal and important process. The process is done on the basis of census data which is a mandatory decennial process since 1881. In post-independent India the Census Act of 1948 which predates our constitution which came two years later empowers the central government to conduct census operations whenever the central government thinks it necessary and imperative.

Our constitution also refers that data available from the census will be the criteria and guidelines for determining assembly and parliamentary constituencies as well as in determining SC/ST quota reservation and other matters that factors in facilitating access for the people to good governance.

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Besides these, the census data would be helpful in preparing the roadmap of undertaking social welfare activities by the government as the census data provides an accurate idea of several socio-economic parameters like demography, literacy level, health care and economic status of the population, migration level from rural areas to cities and urban areas as well as from region to region or from state to state, child-care status, change in the pattern of caste in a particular area or region.

Also, it would be helpful in preparing the roadmap on the impacts of already taken social-welfare activities like the impact of Swach Bharat Abhiyan etc. In this background, the relevance and importance of census as a precedent to the process of delimitation of Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies can’t be underestimated.

The census Act of 1948 did not specify the interval of time for conducting census and our Constitution is also silent on it. However, the census has been an imperative decennial event ever since the first census was held in the country in the year 1881. The last census under the Census Act 1948 was held in the country in the year 2011.

Hence the next census had been due in the year 2021 but in the abnormal situation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, it had to be deferred. Now that the situation had been normal there had been pressure upon the central government for initiating the process of census which had to be deferred in 2021 as early as possible. Although there has been an enigmatic lack of alacrity on the part of the central government, the deferred 2021 census would be completed after the 2024 parliamentary election in the country.

Against this background, there has been inexplicable haste in delimiting the assembly and parliamentary constituencies in Assam on the basis of data available from the 2011 census. Ten years is a long period during which there can be big changes in the structure of demography, population, changes in the level of literacy, education, health care, migration of population, level of unemployment, underemployment in rural and urban areas, change in caste patterns etc.

Hence delimitation of the constituencies on the basis of 2011 census data will be on inaccurate data in almost all the parameters and more particularly on the increase of population during this period of ten years since 2011 and as such delimitation will be bound to be a flawed one giving the state another Pandora’s box.

What has been most puzzling and bizarre has been that the Election Commission of India (ECI) has banned the creation of new administrative units like new districts, sub-divisions, revenue circles etc. in Assam w.e.f. January 1 2023. But on the other hand, another process of creating a new Kamatapur state comprising several districts of Assam, West Bengal and Bihar is going on simultaneously.

On the one hand, there had been a ban on the creation of new administrative units on the ground delimitation of constituencies and on the other preparation is also going on simultaneously for ceding a big swathe of the state comprising several districts of Assam to facilitate the creation of the proposed new Kamatapur state. What an enigmatic contradiction!

Besides these, an inaccurate NRC, the cut-off year for eligibility for citizenship is still being sub-judice, and lack of a clear definition of the term Assamese etc. are other factors making it doubtful how the current process of delimitation of constituencies will be a flawless one.

Further, the current delimitation can neither increase nor decrease the number of assemblies and parliamentary seats in Assam. Then what will be the fate of constituencies that will fall within the districts to be ceded to the new Kamatapur state or what will happen if a constituency, assembly or parliamentary, will come under a part of a district to be ceded to the new state and another district to remain in Assam.

Undoubtedly the Central government’s lack of alacrity in conducting the deferred 2021 census and the inexplicable haste in creating a new Kamatapur state and delimitation of assembly and parliamentary constituencies of Assam the latter two processes going on simultaneously has made confusion worse confounded.

Anyway, everyone expects a flawless outcome of the current delimitation process to create new assembly and parliamentary constituencies in Assam. But nobody in Assam expects another Pandora’s box in the wake of the current delimitation process to create new assembly and parliamentary constituencies. Assam is already overburdened with so many half-baked solutions  –   be it the 1985 Assam Accord or NRC each turning to be a Pandora’s box.

Heaven would not have fallen if the delimitation process in Assam had been taken up after the next national census a couple of years later. What lies behind this inexplicable haste in the delimitation of the assembly and parliamentary constituencies of Assam? Is it for political convenience or for perpetuating electoral hegemony for those in the corridor of power?

Jyoti Prasad Chaliha can be reached at: [email protected]