Indo-Pak tensions escalated following the terrorist attack at Pahalgam on April 22. The terrorist attack was condemned by all, both inside and outside the country. People in the Kashmir Valley came out on the streets against it.
As desired by some, it also didn’t boil down to another Hindu-Muslim strife. To avenge the Pahalgam attack, Indian armed forces conducted Operation Sindoor in the early hours of May 7 at select terrorist establishments inside Pakistan.
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Pakistan’s armed forces retaliated by indiscriminately attacking India in the bordering states. This led to the escalation of hostilities between India and Pakistan.
While the armed conflict between the countries was heating up, a ceasefire was suddenly announced on the evening of May 10.
The Trump administration took credit for it. US President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that his administration brokered the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan neither affirmed nor denied it firmly.
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What is the key to national security? Two things are key to national security. The first is the internal stability of a country, which means the functioning of democracy. The second is its relationship with neighboring countries. How is democracy functioning in India?
That is a big question. Ever since Narendra Modi came to power, dissent is being increasingly stifled in the country, and the functioning of democratic institutions is being challenged and undermined.
The secular character of the Indian state has eroded. The Hindu-Muslim division is being increasingly exploited for political ends by the ruling party.
Freedom of speech is also seriously threatened. A robust multiparty system is a strength of democracy. But if a society is fractured along the lines of religion and other divisive issues, that is a weakness for a country.
At the moment, India is a fractured and internally weakened society. This doesn’t augur well for national security. Even then, people stood solidly behind the government during the recent hostilities with Pakistan.
How is India’s relationship with the countries surrounding it? Forget about Pakistan and China; India’s relationship with other countries is far from better.
Until recently, India’s relationship with Bangladesh was working fine. But with the downfall of the Hasina Government, it has also soured.
Here, it is important to examine closely the kind of relationship India currently maintains with its neighbors.
An alarming point is that India’s less-than-amiable relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal are directly compensated by their growing alliances with China.
Needless to say, if India doesn’t engage favorably with these countries one-on-one, we would be greatly sidelined by Chinese domination in the region.
Bangladesh, particularly, is proving to be a rather outgoing force in ‘rebelling’ against India. Just recently, the interim leader Muhammad Yunus met with his Chinese counterpart and signed several agreements and MoUs to deepen bilateral ties.
What struck most among these developments was Yunus’ effusive praise for China regarding its role in regional development and, particularly, his invitation to develop an airport in Bangladesh, perilously close to India’s already perilous Chicken’s Neck corridor.
And of course, positioning Bangladesh as “the only guardians of the ocean for the entire region (northeast India)” speaks volumes about Bangladesh’s intention to double up against India.
Similarly, with Nepal and Sri Lanka, too, India is treading quite precariously.
Increasing cooperation and trade relations of either country with China have undermined India’s position within their regional domains.
Concerningly enough, there hasn’t been enough impetus from India to directly engage with its neighbors.
Given these developments, it is unlikely that we can effectively counter China through third-party means without addressing the rapidly growing giant directly.
So, all this means that our relationship with our neighbors is not on solid ground. A few days ago, I watched an interview of Karan Thapar with the Indian journalist and security expert Pravin Sawhney.
With evidence and examples, he proved how China helped Pakistan with their sophisticated weaponry and war strategy in the recent Indo-Pak conflict.
What he said was corroborated by reports published in foreign media, particularly in a report published in ‘The Telegraph’ on May 8 by Memphis Baker. If this is indeed the case, things look pretty bad for India.
We know that Pakistan is a failed state. The political leadership in Pakistan is subservient to the Pakistani army. And the Pakistani army is fully dependent on China. China is not concerned about the functioning of the Pakistani state so long as it allows China to use its soil as a security shield against India.
There are clear proofs of Pakistan’s involvement in abetting terrorism in India. And yet, India has not been able to organize international public opinion in its favor by making the best use of these proofs.
That became obvious when India failed to garner support from foreign countries in its favor in the recent Indo-Pak conflict. If this continues, how will India control and contain terrorism sponsored by Pakistan in Kashmir? This looks worrisome for India at the moment.