The 2021 Assam Assembly elections offered a crucial lesson in opposition unity, or rather, the lack thereof. To understand why the anti-BJP forces failed to coalesce effectively, it’s essential to revisit key events and decisions from that period.
The idea of a broad anti-BJP coalition was first floated during the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee’s core committee meeting on August 18, 2020. Discussions revolved around forming a “Grand Alliance” with parties like the AIUDF, CPI, CPI(M), BPF (or UPP(L)), Anchalik Gana Morcha, Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, and others. Then-Assam Congress president Ripun Bora, former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, Congress Legislature Party leader Debabrata Saikia, and deputy leader Rakibul Hussain were tasked with spearheading these talks.
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On August 24, Ripun Bora formally sought approval for the proposed alliance from AICC in-charge Harish Rawat. Several rounds of inter-party discussions followed, leading six parties to agree on joint protest programs against the BJP government. However, a significant shift occurred on September 11, 2020, when Jitendra Singh replaced Harish Rawat as the new Congress in-charge for Assam. Just two months later, on November 6, 2020, Jitendra Singh publicly dismissed the ongoing alliance talks, stating at a press conference that the Pradesh Congress lacked the authority to forge electoral alliances and branding the efforts as a “personal initiative” of some leaders.
This pronouncement brought all grand alliance activities to a standstill. It’s noteworthy that the AICC holds the ultimate authority on coalitions, which is precisely why Ripun Bora had initially sought their approval. Reports suggested that Singh’s intervention was a deliberate move to undermine Rawat’s influence over the issue. Curiously, Singh later indicated in January 2021 that Congress was open to alliances with anti-BJP, secular parties that aligned with its values and aimed to protect Assamese culture and language, but he stressed that local consensus was paramount for such an alliance to proceed.
Fractured Opposition: Debating Unity
Amidst these developments, new regional players emerged, adding another layer of complexity to the opposition landscape. On January 17, 2021, the newly formed Raijor Dal formally proposed an alliance to the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). Bhasko D. Saikia, the acting president of Raijor Dal, emphasized the necessity for all regional parties to collaborate to safeguard Assamese culture, language, and identity from the BJP.
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However, he cautioned that while a united opposition was crucial to defeat the BJP, any coalition involving regional parties and the “divisive” AIUDF would mislead voters and erode public trust. “Secular regional forces must unite independently and form the government,” he asserted, explicitly rejecting an alliance with the AIUDF, which he likened to the BJP. He also ruled out a partnership with Congress due to its close ties with the AIUDF. On the same day, AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi announced that AJP would only form alliances with other regional parties like Raijor Dal, unequivocally stating that AJP would never forge political ties with national or “communal” forces, as such partnerships would compromise their political ideology and independence.
Formation and Fallout of Grand Alliance
Finally, on January 19, 2021, laying all speculation to rest, six opposition parties formally announced the formation of a grand alliance under Congress leadership, aimed squarely at defeating the ruling BJP. The alliance comprised the AIUDF, CPI(M), CPI, CPI(ML), and Anchalik Gana Morcha. The singular objective was to unseat the BJP from power. The announcement was made during a press conference attended by Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, Mukul Wasnik, Shakeel Ahmad Khan, along with then-Assam Congress president Ripun Bora and AICC in-charge Jitendra Singh.
Once it became clear that AJP, Raijor Dal, and BPF (led by Hagrama Mohilary) would not join this grand alliance, the Congress leadership hinted at the possibility of Raijor Dal joining later. On January 31, 2021, BPF’s general secretary Prabin Boro declared that his party would ally with AJP and Raijor Dal to counter the BJP in the upcoming elections. February 5, 2021, saw two significant political developments: AJP and Raijor Dal formally announced their alliance for the 2021 elections, declaring a joint political journey and stating their intent to maintain equal distance from BJP, Congress, and AIUDF. Concurrently, members of the Congress-led alliance met at Hotel Lily in Guwahati and sent a multi-point letter to Congress, proposing a coordination committee, a common minimum program, and joint movements on public issues.
Following this, major conflicts erupted over seat-sharing. Congress formed a three-member committee—comprising Ripun Bora, Debabrata Saikia, and Rakibul Hussain—to resolve these disputes. CPI, CPI(M), and CPI(ML) initially demanded 7-8 seats each. AIUDF reportedly sought around 40 seats, and Anchalik Gana Morcha requested 10-11. These ambitious demands created early tensions, especially since many of the desired seats were currently held by Congress.
2021 Election Results: A Missed Opportunity?
In the 2021 elections, the BJP did not, in fact, win more seats than in 2016, securing 60 seats in both elections—four short of a simple majority. BJP’s allies won 9 and 6 seats respectively. In contrast, the grand alliance garnered 29 seats for Congress, 16 for AIUDF, 4 for BPF (which later allied with Congress), and one for CPI(M). CPI and CPI(ML) failed to win any seats. AJP also won no seats, though Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi was elected from Sivasagar.
A New Path Forward: The Proposal
The aftermath of the 2021 Assam Assembly Election sparked widespread debate in newspapers and social media: many argued that had AJP and Raijor Dal joined the grand coalition, and a judicious seat-sharing arrangement been negotiated, an opposition government might have been formed. In light of this, we propose a strategic blueprint for the next Assam Assembly elections.
Over the past five years, a notable trend of increased unity among opposition parties has been observed, with numerous collaborative programs already implemented by Congress, AJP, Raijor Dal, and other groups. Despite this continuous consolidated effort, seat-sharing remains the primary point of contention for the opposition.
To prevent future deadlock, we propose the establishment of an independent and neutral body—mutually agreed upon by all potential alliance partners—to objectively determine the optimal number of seats each party can realistically contest. After conducting thorough constituency-wise surveys, this body should finalize seat allocations, and crucially, all alliance members must provide written consent to unequivocally abide by these decisions.
If the alliance truly aspires to defeat the BJP, it must transcend narrow party interests and unconditionally support the most effective strategies. Rather than focusing solely on internal organizational strength, alliance partners should prioritize the tactical defeat of the BJP. They must internalize that unless seat-sharing is based on objective data validated by a credible third-party agency (not informal civil society groups), each party will inevitably demand an unrealistically high number of seats, even if they lack the capacity to win any. This internal squabbling could, once again, derail the collective effort.
If Assam’s opposition parties genuinely wish to defeat the BJP, they must adopt new, strategic, and united methods, demonstrating maximum tolerance and flexibility in seat negotiations. Otherwise, the BJP will continue to exploit these persistent weaknesses, securing power by fracturing the opposition vote.