The pollsters are predicting a nail biting finish of 2021 Assam election. Till one year back everything looked rosy for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
However, with each passing day the picture is changing. The political climate has changed following the formation of a grand alliance between two premier political players of Assam — Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
Though few opinion polls are predicting a safe majority for BJP-led alliance, at the same time it’s also predicting a sizeable number of seats for grand alliance.
As per Times Now and C-voter survey BJP-led alliance is going to win 67 seats in a House of 126 seats and the grand alliance is going to bag 57 seats.
It will be naïve to rely on these predictions because our past experience shows how these pollsters’ claim on Bihar polls turned out to be an errant trash.
They put Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagatbandhan way ahead of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in which BJP is a major player. Finally, the verdict turned out to be something else.
Keeping these tidbits at bay, one thing will have to be admitted that Congress is closing the gap in Assam.
As per the latest survey outgoing Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal enjoys a popularity of 45.2 per cent compared to AIUDF supremo Badruddin Ajmal’s popularity of mere 7.7 per cent. We need to keep in mind the dynamics of Indian election are very complex.
In our election leaders are often selected behind closed doors. If at all there is an iota of truth in these observations of pollsters, a hung Assembly is very much in the making.
If at all Assam throws a split verdict, it will be anybody’s game. When it comes to political management, BJP is way ahead of its arch rivals.
We have seen how BJP manoeuvred its move in both Manipur and Goa forcing Congress to recede. Himanta Biswa Sarma is a shrewd strategist and a great political manager.
This skill of Himanta has helped lotus bloom in Northeast. Even his bitter critic will have to admit it. In today’s politics ideology matters nothing. In this context it would be apt to mention one famous adage on politics. It says, ‘politics is nothing but an art of sleeping with your enemy.’
Few years back Ajmal was considered as a ‘Bangladeshi intruder’ into Assam. Today, he is one of the bankable alliance partners for an embattled Congress.
This election will be a bit different from 2016 for two main reasons. The so-called apolitical organizations like All Assam Students Union (AASU) and Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) have decided to take the political plunge by forming their respective parties—Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal (RD).
The question that is impinging in common voter’s minds is certainly not regarding the number of seats which Lurin and Akhil will win—rather they are thinking how far they can mar the prospects of both BJP and Congress.
In such a scenario the chances of ‘rebel’ and ‘independent’ candidates are going to become bright.
If this observation turns out to be true, there is every possibility of a hung Assembly. Cutting the long story short let’s also not forget that BJP is a divided house in Assam.
A major chunk of its leaders are camping against each other. This is certainly a matter of grave concern for the party’s top brass.
The frequent visit of BJP’s star campaigner—Narendra Modi itself indicates that this time the party is sensing a tough fight.
Dear readers, a nail biting finish is on the cards. Let’s see who becomes the movers and shakers in 2021—Sarbananda, Himanta or Ajmal. The list is endless. The tea is too hot. Let’s enjoy our sip and political gapshaps.