Written by – Manoj Kumar Ojha
Guwahati: Assam’s cautious optimism amid uncertainty about China’s ambitious move to construct the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet has sent ripples across the globe.
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It is igniting concerns about its far-reaching environmental, economic, and geopolitical consequences.
Unveiled as part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), the $137 billion project aims to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, surpassing the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam and powering over 300 million people.
While China touts the dam as a cornerstone of its carbon neutrality goals by 2060, experts warn that its implications extend well beyond its borders, threatening water security, ecological stability, and international relations in South Asia and beyond.
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Downstream Nations Brace for Water Security Risks
The Brahmaputra River, a lifeline for millions in China, India, and Bangladesh, lies at the heart of growing apprehension.
Originating in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo, the river flows through India’s northeastern states and into Bangladesh, supporting agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water needs.
Experts caution that the dam could disrupt the river’s natural flow, reducing water availability during dry seasons and increasing flood risks during monsoons.
For India, where the Brahmaputra accounts for nearly 30% of freshwater resources, and Bangladesh, which relies on it for over 65% of its water, the stakes are immense.
Reduced sediment flow could also degrade soil fertility, slash crop yields, and threaten food security for millions of farmers downstream.
Ecological Fallout Threatens Global Biodiversity
The dam’s location on the ecologically sensitive Tibetan Plateau amplifies global environmental concerns.
Situated in a seismically active zone prone to earthquakes, the project risks catastrophic failure, potentially unleashing a “water bomb” that could devastate downstream regions. Environmentalists warn that construction could irreparably harm the plateau’s unique biodiversity, home to endangered species and fragile ecosystems.
A reduction in sediment and changes to the river’s flow could disrupt aquatic life, impacting fisheries that sustain livelihoods across the region.
Combined with climate change effects like glacial melt and deforestation, experts fear the dam could accelerate ecological degradation with global climate implications.
Geopolitical Tensions Escalate in a Volatile Region
China’s unilateral move has heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly with India, a nuclear-armed neighbor with a history of border disputes.
The dam’s proximity to the contested Arunachal Pradesh region, which China claims as “South Tibet,” raises fears that Beijing could manipulate water flow as a strategic weapon during conflicts.
India’s countermeasure, constructing its own 11,000-megawatt dam on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh, signals a “dam-for-dam” race that could further strain relations with both China and Bangladesh.
Experts note that the absence of a comprehensive transboundary river treaty between China and India, coupled with China’s refusal to join global water conventions, leaves downstream nations vulnerable and could destabilize South Asia.
Global Economic and Energy Markets Feel the Ripple Effects
The dam’s massive energy output could reshape global energy dynamics, bolstering China’s position as a clean energy leader while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
However, experts highlight economic risks for downstream nations, where disrupted agriculture and fisheries could trigger losses and displacement.
Bangladesh, heavily dependent on the Brahmaputra, could face severe setbacks to its agrarian economy, potentially driving migration and straining regional stability.
Internationally, the project underscores the growing challenge of balancing renewable energy ambitions with equitable resource management, prompting calls for stronger global frameworks to govern transboundary rivers.
A Test for International Cooperation
Experts stress that the Brahmaputra dam serves as a global test case for water diplomacy. The lack of a trilateral framework among China, India, and Bangladesh fuels uncertainty, with the current Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) proving inadequate to address mega-projects of this scale.
Analysts warn that without enhanced cooperation and transparency, the region risks escalating into a “water war” hotspot, with ripple effects on global climate security.
The United Nations and environmental groups are urging dialogue to establish a binding treaty, arguing that unilateral actions on shared rivers threaten not just regional peace but the world’s ability to combat climate change collaboratively.
Assam’s Cautious Optimism Amid Uncertainty
In India’s Assam state, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has downplayed immediate concerns, citing the Brahmaputra’s multiple water sources from Arunachal Pradesh, Bhutan, and local rainfall.
Speaking on July 21, 2025, Sarma noted that the dam’s impact remains unclear, with some experts suggesting reduced flow could mitigate flooding, a persistent issue in Assam, while others warn of biodiversity loss.
However, his assurance that the central government is engaging with China reflects broader global hopes for diplomatic solutions.
As construction progresses, the world watches closely, weighing China’s energy ambitions against the intricate web of consequences for humanity and the planet.