Guwahati: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a severe heatwave warning, forecasting above-normal temperatures and more heatwave days across India from March to May.
The IMD predicts above-average temperatures nationwide, except in isolated parts of peninsular and northeast India, indicating a nearly nonexistent spring season.
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DS Pai, senior scientist of IMD, stated that a higher-than-usual number of heatwave days will occur across most of India.
He added that the exception would be northeast India, extreme north India, and the southwestern and southern regions of peninsular India.
Regions expected to experience the most intense heat include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern Karnataka.
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This warning follows India’s record-breaking February, with a mean monthly temperature of 22.04°C, 1.34°C higher than the long-term average, making it the warmest February in 124 years. The previous record was 21.99°C in 2016. The country also recorded an average maximum temperature of 29.07°C, 1.49°C above normal, marking the second warmest February for daytime temperatures, after 2023.
Nighttime temperatures were even more extraordinary, with an average minimum temperature of 15.02°C, setting a new February record—1.2°C higher than the usual value. The previous high was 14.91°C in 2016.
These warmer-than-usual February conditions align with recent weather trends, including Delhi’s warmest February night in 74 years on Thursday, with minimum temperatures reaching 19.5°C—seven degrees above normal.
The IMD attributes the unusual warmth to the behavior of western disturbances, which usually bring cooler air to northern India in winter.
“Although seven western disturbances occurred in February, compared to the typical five or six, they moved quickly and lacked sufficient moisture, resulting in only light rain or snow,” Pai explained. Coldwaves were notably absent, and the usual fog in the Indo-Gangetic Plains was also missing.
For March, the IMD forecasts normal rainfall (83-117% of the long-period average), with above-normal rainfall expected in most of Peninsular India and southern central India, while the rest of the country may experience normal to below-normal rainfall.
The IMD also noted the presence of weak La Nina conditions, expecting them to weaken further through March to May.
Pai mentioned that ENSO neutral conditions are likely from the monsoon season onward, and while models suggest temperatures will rise, El Nino conditions are unlikely.
Currently, large parts of northwest India are experiencing an active western disturbance, bringing widespread rain and snowfall.
Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand have reported heavy rainfall, with Udhampur in Jammu and Kashmir receiving 215.4mm, followed by Batote with 163.7mm.
The wet spell is expected to continue over northwest India until March 3, with another weak western disturbance expected in the second week of March.
“Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall is likely over the Western Himalayan region from March 8 to 10,” the IMD forecasted.