The January 7 parliamentary election in Bangladesh was not only significant for the country but also for several foreign nations, including neighbouring India. The international observers of Bangladesh’s political unrest leading up to the election expressed deep concern over the country’s fragile democracy. The foreign media has termed the election “controversial” with a low voter turnout. The ruling Awami League (AL) and its allies won 222 out of 300 Jatiya Sangsad seats. In the opinion of the Western media, the AL won a “disputed landslide victory” in an election that was boycotted by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth consecutive term in power and has become the world’s longest-serving female head of government. In the eyes of several Western countries, Bangladesh has turned into a virtual one-party state with the AL winning 75% of the parliamentary seats. The low voter turnout with 40% participation has raised many eyebrows particularly as more than 80% turnout was recorded in the 2018 general election. The unofficial sources, however, estimate that the actual turnout was around 28%. The Election Commissioner of Bangladesh Kazi Habibul Awal also noted that the election “lacked competiveness” as the major opposition party did not take part in it.
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The 12th parliamentary poll in Bangladesh was a highly watched election in South Asia. Several international bodies, including United Nations Organisation (UNO) and Western countries said the poll process had numerous irregularities and was not inclusive. Therefore, many questions have been raised over the election process and result. The UNO flagged concern over the arbitrary detention of opposition leaders and activists and urged the Hasina government to renew its commitment towards democracy. Reports say the UN Secretary General’s office too closely monitored the election. On January 8, the UN Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk condemned the violence and repression during the contentious election in Bangladesh, adding that “such tactics are not conducive to truly genuine process” and the “future of Bangladesh is at stake”.
Moreover, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association called the election climate in Bangladesh “repressive’ and “disturbing”. Reports suggest that the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) also conveyed serious concern over the political turbulence ahead of the election. The ANFREL raised pertinent questions “about its adherence to democratic principles and international election standards that assess the legitimacy of the electoral process”. The Bangladesh Election Commission permitted 127 foreign observers, including 73 journalists to monitor and cover the election.
While most of the Western countries did not send poll observers, India deputed three senior officials from the country’s Election Commission and China sent three officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Russia was represented by four election observers. Though the United States (US) government did not engage any poll observer, representatives of two American think tanks—the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute-sent one each observer who kept a close watch on pre- and post-poll violence. Interestingly, they said the election was “free and fair”.
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The US government voiced concern over the political violence that took place before the election and highlighted the non-participation of the opposition. Reports suggest that the EU sent a four-member technical team to monitor the election and they were not at all impressed with the way it was conducted even though their findings were not reflected in the official statement. Three key countries, namely, India, China and Russia congratulated Prime Minister Hasina on her electoral victory. A US-based expert on South Asia noted that the non-Western countries appear to be happy working with the AL government. All South Asian neighbours except Pakistan and other developing countries are also likely to follow suit. They are not concerned with the election and how it turned out.
India, China and Russia wanted Hasina to return to power through a free and fair election. India remained silent over the one-sided election insisting that it was a domestic issue of Bangladesh. This encouraged China to adopt a similar approach. However, the US, EU and other Western countries had been exerting pressure on the Hasina government to hold a free, fair and inclusive election. The US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas in late October 2023 called upon the Hasina regime to negotiate with the opposition and make some concessions to pave the way for “fair and peaceful election to restore Bangladesh’s fledgling democracy”.
As per reports, the US ambassador also met Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen and said to have informed him of likely tough measures, including a range of sanctions for failing to organise a fair and violence-free and participatory election. Prime Minister Hasina, however, completely ruled out the “question of a dialogue over the conduct of polls” and slammed the Islamist opposition and their “global patrons”. The AL leaders described the move as “increasing interference” in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs. Hasina categorically said that the caretaker system was abolished by the parliament in 2011 due to its misuse during 2007-08, and there is no possibility of restoring the same.
The January 7 election was viewed as a litmus paper test for democracy in Bangladesh. The Indian media highlighted that the US State Department’s assertion of a “free and fair” election was more pronounced this time. The US said in May 2023 that it would impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi officials who undermine the democratic election process in the country. Geo-political rivalries have undoubtedly added a new twist to Bangladesh’s volatile politics with Russia and the US engaged in bitter war of words after Moscow accused Washington of plotting an Arab-Spring like post-election mass movement to overthrow the Hasina government.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his Dhaka visit said that the “US goal is clearly both to counter China and to isolate Russia in the region”. Russia has been assisting Bangladesh to build its first nuclear power plant. In December 2023, Russia made strong remarks against the US, especially targeting its ambassador to Dhaka for trying to meddle in Bangladesh’s election.
The political turmoil in Bangladesh ahead of the election attracted global attention. The major opposition BNP not only boycotted the January 7 election but also tried to enforce a non-cooperation movement, urging the electorate to abstain from voting. In late October 2023, the AL government cracked down on the BNP imprisoning about 20,000 of its activists and 11 of them were killed by the security forces during violent street protests, raising concerns over a credible election in Bangladesh.
A New York Times report said about 1 million BNP activists are facing court cases. The AL government justified the crackdown by asserting that the opposition activists had gone violent, indulging in the burning of public transport and hurling crude bombs at police and officials. However, Human Rights Watch called the government’s response to the opposition an “autocratic crackdown” before the election.