Guwahati: Telecom operators are set to raise mobile tariffs by about 15 per cent in June 2026, ending a two-year pause, a move analysts say will more than double the sector’s revenue growth by FY27, according to a Jefferies report released on Thursday.
Jefferies said the expected hike follows historical pricing cycles in the industry. It added that rising data penetration, a growing shift to postpaid plans and sharply higher data consumption continue to lift mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) in India.
The report estimates that tariff hikes and pricing actions will accelerate sector revenue growth to 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY27, compared with an estimated 7 per cent YoY growth in FY26. Based on a likely 15 per cent headline tariff increase in June 2026, analysts project ARPU growth of about 14 per cent YoY in FY27. However, subscriber additions could remain subdued as users adjust to higher prices.
Jefferies expects Reliance Jio to implement a steeper tariff increase of 10–20 per cent, a step aimed at narrowing its valuation gap with Bharti Airtel and delivering a double-digit internal rate of return for investors.
The outlook for Vodafone Idea (VIL) remains strained, the report said. The debt-laden telco will need to raise mobile tariffs by a cumulative 45 per cent between FY27 and FY30 to meet its statutory payment obligations.
The government has frozen VIL’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues at Rs 87,695 crore, with repayments scheduled from FY32 to FY41. A proposed five-year moratorium could lower the company’s cash outgo towards government dues by 35–85 per cent through FY30, but Jefferies said VIL would still require sharp tariff hikes and fresh debt or equity funding to sustain network investments.
The report added that tariff increases, coupled with the completion of major 5G rollouts, should improve operating margins across the sector. Capital expenditure is expected to moderate as the most intensive phase of 5G deployment has largely ended, with spending intensity likely to remain contained through FY27.