Reported by Roopak Goswami
Guwahati: Even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon for the country this year, Northeast India is expected to fare better than many other regions, with rainfall likely to remain close to normal during the June–September season.
In its updated long-range monsoon forecast released on Friday, the IMD said the country as a whole is likely to receive only 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this monsoon season, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and heat stress in several parts of India.
However, the weather agency projected “normal” seasonal rainfall for Northeast India, placing the region in the 94–106 per cent of LPA category.
The forecast comes as a relief for the rain-dependent Northeast, where farming, river systems, hydropower generation, and drinking water supplies are closely tied to monsoon behaviour.
According to the IMD, while much of central, northwestern, and peninsular India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, parts of Northeast India may continue to receive normal to above-normal rain during the season.
The department also indicated that June rainfall over Northeast India is expected to remain better than many other parts of the country, even though nationwide rainfall during the month is projected to stay below normal.
Scientists said current neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific Ocean are gradually shifting towards El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to continue during the monsoon season.
The IMD warned that below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country could affect agriculture, hydropower generation, water resources, and ecosystems, while also increasing drought and heat stress risks.
For Northeast India, however, the forecast raises hopes of a relatively stable monsoon season at a time when climate variability has increasingly disrupted traditional rainfall patterns across the region.
The IMD said it will issue its next forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June.