Guwahati: Amid ongoing eviction drives targeting illegal settlers across Assam, and with Union Home Minister Amit Shah reiterating his promise to make Assam and the rest of the country free from infiltrators, the issue of demographic change in the state has emerged as a major concern.
Over the past five decades, Assam’s demographic landscape has shifted significantly. Census data shows a steady rise in the Muslim population and a relative decline in the Hindu population.
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The 2011 Census identified 11 Muslim-majority districts: Dhubri, Barpeta, Darrang, Goalpara, Hailakandi, Karimganj, Morigaon, Nagaon, Bongaigaon, South Salmara–Mankachar, and Hojai.
In Dhubri, Muslims form nearly 80 percent of the population; in Barpeta, they account for over 70 percent.
Statewide trends reflect this demographic shift. In 1971, Muslims made up 25.2 percent of Assam’s population, while Hindus accounted for 72.5 percent.
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By 2011, the Muslim population rose to 34.22 percent, and the Hindu population declined to 61.47 percent.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma projected that by 2041, the state could witness “a near 50-50 balance,” sparking intense debate in political and social circles.
Experts cite multiple causes behind the change. “Fertility rates among Muslims remain significantly higher than among Hindus, which naturally influences population growth,” said a demographer based in Guwahati.
Official figures confirm this: Muslim fertility stands at 3.4, while Hindu fertility is 2.2. Migration trends also contribute.
“Many Hindu families from rural areas move to Guwahati or Silchar for better education and jobs. In contrast, Muslim families living in the chars and riverine regions tend to stay back, tied to agriculture and land,” explained a senior state planner.
Illegal immigration from Bangladesh continues to spark political tension.
The 2019 National Register of Citizens (NRC) excluded 1.9 million applicants identified as non-citizens. “Border districts like Dhubri face high vulnerability to undocumented migration,” said a retired police officer.
“This migration increases demographic pressure and fuels local distrust,” he added.
For many residents, the issue hits home. “In Nagaon town, our Hindu neighbours keep leaving for Guwahati or Delhi. The younger generation doesn’t see a future here,” said Ramesh Bhuyan, a 52-year-old Hindu trader.
Meanwhile, voices from Muslim-majority regions defend their legitimacy. “We were born here; our parents were born here. People call us outsiders, but this is our home,” said Abdul Rahman, a farmer from Dhubri.
The political stakes are high. “Numbers translate into votes, which makes demographic change a deeply sensitive issue in Assam,” noted a political analyst. However, civil society leaders emphasize the need for balance.
“Instead of deepening divisions, we should implement policies that offer opportunities for all communities,” said a representative of an NGO operating in Barpeta.
As Assam confronts these demographic realities, policymakers must balance the dual challenge of securing its borders and promoting inclusive development.
With population shifts influencing both governance and grassroots politics, the demographic debate will likely remain central to Assam’s future.