Written by Rajan Pandey
“BJP will lose with so many votes this time that in future it won’t dare to say it can make even a dog or cat win from Bankipur by giving ticket”, said Prashant Kishor before the voting in Bankipur assembly bye-election. Kishor (or PK as he is popularly called) was referring to a statement allegedly made by senior BJP leader and local MP Ravishankar Prasad that Bankipur is a BJP citadel and if the party fields even a dog or cat from here, it can win on a BJP ticket. PK finally proved his point as he defeated BJP’s Neeraj Kumar by more than 18000 votes here on Monday. What are the reasons for this result and will it have a long term impact on the politics of Bihar?
The calculation and the build up
Bankipur is an urban constituency located in the heart of Bihar’s state capital Patna. Some analysts believe that PK chose this seat because it was a traditional BJP seat with very few Muslim votes and was till now represented by BJP’s current national president Nitin Nabin. Nabin was a 5 times MLA from here and BJP had been winning from here since 1995, when this seat was known as Patna West. In 2025 BJP won here by more than 50,000 votes over RJD from this seat. Being an urban seat, it records a lower than average voter turnout and this time it recorded less than 40% voting only.
Despite doing padyatra across the state and leading a very charged campaign, PK’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) could not win a single seat in last election polling only 3.34 % votes across Bihar. The party needed a comeback from that debacle. Experts believe that PK decided to contest from this impossible looking seat to lead by example and boost the morale of his cadres and supporters. Further, if PK could defeat BJP in its bastion, it could warm up the Muslim voters towards him who comprise around 17.5% of the electorate and that could alter Jan Suraaj’s political future.
Abu Affan Farooquee, the state president of Jan Suraaj’s Minority wing in Bihar says, “this was a huge risk but PK said we need to take it to prove that voters are craving for real change and clean politics. Further, RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav, who is the main face of opposition in the state, was holidaying abroad when the Bankipur election campaign was taking place. We wanted to prove that opposition is not dead in Bihar and that Jan Suraaj is the force which will lead it from the front.”
Initially, the BJP leadership was overconfident of its victory but things began to change as the campaign picked momentum after PK’s nomination. Patna based political analyst Amit Kumar says The BJP was on the back foot in Bankipur from day one. First blunder was the selection of candidate. SIS securities owner and BJP leader Rituraj Sinha, a Kayasth, could have been a strong candidate here as he is young, resourceful and comes from the numerically influential caste. Many allege that a weak candidate was chosen as BJP national president and 5 times Bankipur MLA Nitin Nabin did not want a strong leader emerging on his home seat. Then, BJP changed its candidate after dropping Abhishek Bunty and fielding Neeraj Kumar Sinha. The last blow came from the Gen Z movement as most of the protests happened in those areas of Patna which fall under this constituency. The youth, disenchanted with the ruling dispensation, led the change here.”
The Jan Suraaj party made it a question of prestige and the whole organisation exhausted its manpower and resources on this seat. Towards the end, BJP tried to do damage control by sending a number of senior leader for campaign here but by that time the damage was already done. This defeat is a big blow, not just for the BJP but also for its national president Nitin Nabin and the current CM Samrat Chaoudhary, both of whom could not save their bastion in a bye-election.
After Nitish who- has Samrat Chaudhry failed the test?
The ex factor of Bihar’s politics since last 3 decades has been ex CM Nitish Kumar, who is also the longest serving CM of the state. He and his party JD(U) continued to enjoy considerable support among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Dalits, women, Kurmis, and sections of the upper castes. Surveys and post poll analysis of the 2025 assembly elections revealed that majority of the voters in Bihar across castes, communities, regions and age groups did not see anybody as a more viable alternative to him. Kumar’s greatest political advantage lied in the absence of a widely accepted successor from his family and the continued transferability of his support base. This made him a significant force within any political alliance, even when his party’s vote share and support base appeared comparatively modest. In this situation, the BJP had no choice but to contest the assembly elections under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, who took oath as CM for the 10th time after scoring a massive victory- NDA won 202 of the 243 seats.
All this changed this year in March when Kumar was hastily removed from his post, moved to the Rajya Sabha and BJP’s Samrat Choudhary was made the CM in his place. Since BJP never declared Choudhary as its CM face and since the change was so sudden, it was a bit hard even for the NDA voters to digest it. Choudhary was in the cross-hairs of PK since his elevation to the Bihar deputy CM before assembly elections. And from all platforms, he kept on raising the issue of his education (PK alleges Choudhary in only 7th pass) and criminal background (he alleged that Choudhary was accused in a murder case).
All this kept the BJP and Samrat Choudhary cornered despite enjoying a massive mandate. The controversy around Bharat Tiwari encounter and UGC guidelines on equal opportunity further angered the upper castes in the state, who despite being committed BJP voters have not seen a savarna CM in decades (Choudhary is an OBC). Combined with the worsening of financial situation in the state, the upper caste voters of BJP also finally flipped towards PK, who comes from the Brahmin community.
Political vacuum and new opportunities
Does this mean that PK is going to be more than just an MLA in coming future? Amit Kumar says “PK is definitely going to be the voice of the opposition in Bihar now. He is articulate, hard working and consistent while the main opposition RJD’s leadership has been absent since the 2025 assembly elections debacle. He also has the sympathy of the people since he remained active even after badly losing the 2025 polls despite raising all the right issues like jobs, education, infrastructure and clean politics”.
That the opposition in Bihar is in a disarray is common knowledge now. After two consecutive defeats in 2020 and 2025 elections, main opposition RJD and its leader Tejaswi Yadav are in serious need of re-inventing themselves. And after Nitish’s exit from Bihar, a big vaccume has been created which none of the current BJP or JD(U) leaders are able to fill. The Congress and the left parties are in single digits collectively in the assembly. Further, the Muslim-Yadav axis of RJD is also loosening as a number of Muslim voters across minority dominated Simanchal region preferred Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM over RJD in 2025 elections. Can PK fill this gap as he enjoys a pan-Bihar image, and emerge as a future leader of the state? only time will tell.
Rajan Pandey is a freelance journalist