With the announcement of results on 4 June, the dust kicked up by the prolonged poll process spread over seven phases in three months finally settled down, with the focus now shifting to the formation of a new government. Perhaps, one of the longest electioneering in the country’s recent history, the election to the 18th Lok Sabha went down the wire, with the incumbent once again returning to power for a historic third consecutive term, albeit by a slender margin.
While the re-election of the incumbent was never in doubt, what has shocked many, especially the pollsters, is the see-saw battle witnessed between the two blocs NDA and INDIA block, before the former somehow managed to scrap through. And, contrary to what some experts had predicted, the results have also shown that the era of coalition politics isn’t quite over yet in the country. Also, the outcome holds lessons for both the winners and losers of one of the most keenly-contested general elections in the country and which both sides could ignore at their peril. While yours truly ain’t no expert, several scenarios seem plausible in the current context, which any discerning citizen could easily foresee.
Of course, one of the primary outcomes of the election is a stronger opposition. Now, whether this would be eventually for the good or bad of the country remains to be seen and would be known in the days to come. But, the new government would undoubtedly be under a tight leash. Unlike the earlier two terms, Modi 3.0 is unlikely to have its way in the Parliament. There could be frequent disruptions in Parliament proceedings as the treasury and opposition benches are likely to cross swords over several contentious issues, which could affect in passing of crucial legislation.
The bitter wrangling between the government and the opposition could even prevent the former from taking policy decisions crucial to economic reforms, eventually leading to a policy paralysis, reminiscent of UPA 2.0 days when Dr Manmohan Singh-led government shied away from making decisions on certain matters, lest these invited the wrath of the opposition. As Nikkei Asia quoted Sumedha Dasgupta, senior analyst for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit: “The BJP’s lower majority will significantly impact its ability to carry out reforms.”
Further, with its tally falling short of the magical majority mark of 272 in Parliament, the BJP could be under coalition pressure and would ill-afford to ruffle the feather of its allies the wrong way. With their support being crucial for both the survival of Modi 3.0 and the passage of important Bills in Parliament, leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar could be expected to increase their bargaining chip.
Hence, considering the latest ground reality, contentious issues like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), National Register of Citizens (NRC), etc, which are very dear to the BJP, could be placed on the back burner in the backdrop of the key regional allies’ stated opposition. In all likelihood, the party might also have to contend with certain demands from some of its allies, conceding to which would mean a compromise with its core philosophy.
Meanwhile, the new incumbent would be under tremendous pressure to deliver. As if a wafer-thin majority in Parliament and negotiating through various demands (some in conflict with its core principles) of its allies were not enough, Modi 3.0 would be under constant scrutiny, especially given the public expectations Narendra Modi had managed to generate in his earlier two terms. However, the readers would do well to recall that former Congress Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao too delivered when it mattered the most. He had taken one of the toughest decisions in post-independent India – unshackling the Indian economy by unleashing economic liberalisation – when his government didn’t enjoy a clear majority in Parliament. And the rest is history. Hence, harbouring expectations of some similar moves in some key areas by Modi 3.0 won’t be entirely misplaced.
Further, more social welfare schemes could also follow, as slogans like “Viksit Bharat” through improved infrastructure, or “Modi ki guarantee” to make India the world’s third-largest economy, etc, didn’t quite get political traction. The incumbent could be taking the general election results as a call to perform or perish, forcing it to bolster the existing social security net through some new initiatives with catchy slogans.
However, the biggest impact of the results would be on Brand Modi. The brand that had become so synonymous with, if not the face of, Modi 1.0 and Modi 2.0 has come under serious challenge. Hence, it could be expected to be watered down, as other leaders too would vie for equal space and media attention. With diminishing poll dividend, the BJP could rework the brand by perhaps focusing more on the party and its core ideology. On the other hand, with the results in Uttar Pradesh throwing a spanner on its aspiration of romping home with a thumping majority, the BJP is likely to visit the caste arithmetic too in Hindi heartland, as Hindutva alone apparently didn’t quite deliver the outcome on expected lines.
But, expecting a sudden or total dilution of Hindutva, which has been mainstreamed in the country in the last over 30 years, would be a bit too far-fetched. Having been established on a firm pedestal, the BJP is unlikely to give up on its core Hindutva agenda, though the party might not push for it aggressively for now given the constraints of coalition politics. Hence, the Gyanvapi and Mathura disputes could be put on cold storage for the time being. Of course, these are all speculations. And the kind of leader that he had proved himself to be over the years, Modi could as well convert these challenges into advantages. Only time will tell who has the last laugh.