By NE NOW NEWS
Guwahati: Concerns over this year’s southwest monsoon intensified after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its forecast for the onset over Kerala and warned of below-normal seasonal rainfall amid emerging El Nino conditions.
The IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon would reach Kerala on May 26, with a margin of error of four days. However, after the seasonal winds missed the normal onset date of June 1 over mainland India, the weather agency on Tuesday said the monsoon is now likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4.
In a statement, the IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into additional parts of the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Bay of Bengal around June 4.
Research scientist Akshay Deoras said weak monsoon winds over the past few days had delayed its advance into mainland India.
“Weather models indicate the possibility of a weak monsoon onset in Kerala after June 3, followed by gradual northward progression in the following days. Northeast India is expected to witness monsoon onset between June 5 and 10,” he said.
The monsoon usually covers the Northeast by June 5.
The delayed onset comes as El Nino conditions continue to develop over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday said warming ocean temperatures are likely to influence global weather patterns and increase the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months.
According to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, South Asia is expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall due to El Nino conditions.
El Nino is associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean caused by weakening trade winds. Strong El Nino events often weaken India’s southwest monsoon and lead to warmer-than-normal seasonal temperatures.
Historical data also indicates a strong correlation between El Nino and drought in India, with 13 of the country’s 18 drought years over the past century linked to the phenomenon.
The IMD has revised its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall to 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA), down from its earlier estimate of 92 per cent.
Except for the Kashmir region and some parts of Arunachal Pradesh and India’s east coast, most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this season, according to the updated forecast.
Several areas in the Northeast are also expected to record below-normal rainfall during the four monsoon months, although the region’s overall average precipitation may remain near normal.
The Northeast has already recorded five consecutive years of below-normal monsoon rainfall. Last year, East and Northeast India received 1,089.9 mm rainfall during the monsoon season — the second lowest in 125 years after 2013.
Despite concerns over the upcoming monsoon, Assam has recorded excess pre-monsoon rainfall this year. Against the normal rainfall of 494 mm, the state has received 547.3 mm rainfall since March 1, around 11 per cent above normal.
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across Northeast India over the next five to six days.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh between June 3 and 8, and over Assam and Meghalaya between June 5 and 8.
Maximum temperatures in several parts of Assam have remained 3 to 5 degrees above normal in recent days.