Guwahati: Assam is projected to experience substantial climate changes by 2040, posing significant challenges to the state’s economy, ecosystems and public health.
According to recent climate projections under the medium-emission SSP 2-4.5 scenario, the state will witness rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased heat risk.
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Professor Santonu Goswami of Azim Premji University stated that an alarming rise in temperature and wet bulb temperatures is being witnessed in Assam, with several districts facing significant discomfort due to rising heat levels.
The projections indicate that all districts in Assam will see an increase in mean annual maximum temperature, with Tinsukia, Dhemaji, and Dibrugarh expected to face the highest temperature rise.
Winters in Assam will also become notably warmer, with South Salmara-Mankachar, Jorhat, and Chirang predicted to see significant increases in winter maximum temperatures. This warming could disrupt agricultural cycles, affect biodiversity, and alter energy demands for heating and cooling.
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The projections also indicate that several districts will experience high wet bulb temperatures, posing significant health risks, especially during heat waves. Jorhat and Majuli are expected to see levels exceeding 31°C, while Nagaon is expected to see a 1.95°C rise in annual wet bulb temperatures.
Assam’s rainfall patterns will also undergo changes, leading to both extended dry spells and heavier rainfall events.
The shifting patterns are likely to worsen water shortages, affecting both irrigation and drinking water supplies. The changing rainfall will also impact the timing and productivity of agricultural cycles, posing challenges to Assam’s agrarian economy.
The professor also stated that climate data projections are now openly available to the public for the first time in India, allowing people to download the data for any district in the country.