Doomdooma: The growing sight of sprinklers spraying water across tea plantations in eastern Assam’s Tinsukia district reflects the mounting pressure that changing weather patterns are placing on the state’s tea industry.
With prolonged dry spells and increasingly irregular rainfall affecting soil moisture, tea estates are relying more on artificial irrigation to sustain plantations traditionally dependent on seasonal rains.
“Tea is a crop that responds to the rhythm of nature. When rainfall becomes irregular and the soil loses moisture, the bushes cannot produce fresh shoots at their normal pace. Sprinkler irrigation can provide temporary relief, but it increases the cost of cultivation and cannot completely compensate for the natural conditions required for healthy tea growth,” Brahmananda Jha, retired manager of Lodoka Tea Estate in Daisajan, told Northeast Now.
He added that the dry spell was particularly concerning during the autumn flush, when prolonged moisture shortages could affect leaf availability and the manufacturing season.
Across several tea-growing areas, the absence of substantial rainfall has left bushes visibly stressed. Some leaves have lost their characteristic deep green colour and turned pale, raising concerns among growers about plantation health and productivity.
The impact goes beyond the appearance of the bushes. Insufficient soil moisture can restrict the growth of tender shoots, lengthen plucking intervals and reduce the supply of fresh green leaves required by tea factories.
For an industry whose productivity has long depended on rainfall patterns, maintaining plantation output is becoming increasingly expensive.
IMD data shows rainfall deficit in Tinsukia
The meteorological data provides a more detailed picture of the rainfall situation.
According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) district rainfall report dated November 14, 2026, Tinsukia received no rainfall on that day, against a normal of 0.3 mm.
Between October 1 and November 14, the district recorded 116.6 mm of rainfall against the normal of 134.5 mm, registering a deficit of approximately 13.3 per cent.
The broader regional assessment also points to below-normal rainfall during October. The IMD’s October 2026 monthly weather report recorded below-normal rainfall across much of Assam.
Mean monthly rainfall in most parts of the state remained below 2.5 mm. Upper and northeastern Assam generally recorded around five rainy days, while isolated areas received rainfall on up to 10 days.
These figures highlight why the timing and distribution of rainfall matter as much as the total amount received. For tea plantations, long gaps between showers can affect soil moisture and fresh-shoot development even when seasonal rainfall totals appear relatively close to normal.
Moisture stress can slow shoot emergence, disrupt plucking cycles and reduce the volume of tender leaves available for processing. Changes in foliage colour and growth may also indicate nutritional deficiencies, pest attacks or other plantation-related problems.
The increasing use of sprinkler irrigation, meanwhile, brings additional operational expenses. Estates must arrange reliable water sources, pumping systems, electricity or fuel, maintenance and additional labour.
For plantations already dealing with rising cultivation costs and ageing tea bushes, irrigation is adding another financial burden.
A recent investigation into the effects of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures on India’s tea industry, citing Tea Research Association data, reported that rainfall in Assam had declined by more than 250 mm between 1921 and 2024. It also noted that minimum temperatures had increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius over the period.
The investigation highlighted discoloured leaves, growing irrigation requirements and increasing pressure on the tea industry’s harvesting window.
Autumn flush faces growing pressure
The current dry spell comes at a significant stage in the tea production calendar. November falls within Assam’s fourth harvesting period, commonly known as the autumn flush, which generally runs from October to December.
A peer-reviewed study published in 2023, examining tea plantations in Assam between 1990 and 2022, identifies four major harvesting periods:
- First flush: March to April
- Second flush: May to June
- Third or monsoon flush: July to September
- Fourth or autumn flush: October to December
The autumn flush contributes to the annual production cycle, making the availability of fresh leaves during this period important for both plantations and tea factories.
A decline in green-leaf arrivals can disrupt manufacturing schedules, forcing factories to reduce processing hours, operate fewer shifts or advance the end of seasonal operations.
The shortage is already being felt by workers at some tea factories in the district.
“We have been leaving the factory early these days because there are not enough green leaves to process. Factory officials have told us that, owing to the shortage of green leaves, there will be no work at the factory towards the end of November,” a tea factory worker told Northeast Now on Sunday.
However, there is no independently verified estate-wise notification confirming that tea factories in Tinsukia have decided to close early or reduce their operating hours in November 2026.
Climate change adds to the cost of tea production
The difficulties facing Tinsukia’s tea estates are not limited to the current harvesting season. Increasingly irregular rainfall, warmer conditions and longer dry spells are raising concerns about the long-term climatic conditions that have supported Assam’s tea industry.
Changing temperature and rainfall patterns are adding to production challenges, increasing the need for irrigation and putting further pressure on plantation economics.
These climate-related concerns come alongside existing expenses involving wages, fertilisers, pesticides and the upkeep of ageing tea bushes.
Tinsukia has a long association with Assam’s tea industry, dating back nearly two centuries.
According to the Tea Board of India, Robert Bruce came across indigenous tea plants growing in the forests around Sadiya in 1823. The first English tea garden was established at Chabua in 1837, while the Assam Tea Company began commercial tea production in the region in 1840.
The year 1860 also marked an important phase in the expansion of tea plantations, as the British government and planters began bringing large numbers of workers from different parts of India to work in the estates.
Today, the industry faces a different challenge: sustaining production and protecting its economic viability amid changing climatic conditions and rising costs.
IMD forecast offers possibility of rain
The India Meteorological Department’s Regional Meteorological Centre in Guwahati, in its November 15, 2026, weather bulletin, forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya on November 15-16 and again during November 19-21.
The department’s separate seven-day forecast for Tinsukia indicated one or two spells of rain or thundershowers on November 16. Mainly partly cloudy conditions were expected from November 17 to 21, with morning fog or mist also likely.
While the forecast indicates the possibility of some rainfall, it does not establish whether Tinsukia’s tea-growing areas will receive widespread or sustained showers.
The actual amount and distribution of rainfall will remain crucial for plantations already experiencing moisture stress.
For tea growers, the concern is therefore no longer limited to when the next shower will arrive. The bigger question is whether rainfall will become regular enough to support fresh-leaf growth, sustain the autumn harvest and reduce dependence on artificial irrigation.
Sprinkler systems can provide temporary relief by replenishing moisture around tea bushes. However, they cannot fully replicate the natural seasonal balance of rainfall, humidity and temperature on which Assam’s tea industry has traditionally depended.
As Tinsukia’s tea estates navigate another challenging season, the sight of artificial rain falling across plantation rows reflects an industry increasingly compelled to adapt to changing climatic conditions.