Assam’s cooling demand to more than double by 2040 as temperatures hit 40°C: ACAP

Guwahati: Assam’s cooling electricity demand across buildings, industry and cold chain sectors is projected to more than double from 3,576 GWh in 2025 to 8,445 GWh by 2040, as the state experiences rising temperatures and increasing cooling needs.

Environment and Forest Minister Jayanta Malla Baruah launched the Assam Cooling Action Plan at a function in Guwahati on Wednesday. The plan lays out measures to meet the state’s growing cooling demand while limiting its environmental impact.

The plan has been developed by the Assam Climate Change Management Society (ACCMS), the nodal agency for climate change matters under the Environment, Forest and Climate Change Department, Government of Assam, with technical support from WRI India.

It follows the framework of the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP), launched by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change in 2019. The ICAP provides a 20-year roadmap for meeting cooling needs sustainably and calls for state and local action based on regional priorities.

The Assam plan covers four sectors with high cooling demand — buildings, cold chain, industry and transport. It assesses current and projected cooling demand, reviews policies, regulations and institutional frameworks, and recommends measures for sustainable cooling.

The recommendations were developed through consultations with state government departments, the private sector, civil society and other stakeholders. They are aligned with India’s commitments under the Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment.

The plan notes that cooling is essential for health, productivity and economic growth. It helps protect people from heat stress, maintain comfortable indoor environments and support agriculture by preserving perishables, reducing food loss, supporting farmer incomes and enhancing food security.

Cooling is also critical for industry and manufacturing, where temperature and humidity control affect product quality and equipment performance.

Most cooling systems currently rely on refrigerant-based, or “active”, technologies. These are energy-intensive and use refrigerant gases with high global warming potential.

Global greenhouse gas emissions from space cooling and refrigeration were approximately 4,400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020, accounting for nearly 15 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions (Dong, Coleman and Miller, 2021).

The International Energy Agency has projected that India will account for 30 per cent of global emissions from space cooling by 2050, compared with 8 per cent in 2016 (OECD/IEA, 2018).

Assam is also experiencing a warming trend. Most of the state falls under the “warm and humid” climate zone under the Energy Conservation Building Code classification, while a few areas fall under the “cold” zone (ASDA, 2020).

The state has begun experiencing extreme summer heat, with temperatures approaching 40°C along with persistently high humidity (MoHFW, 2022).

The Assam State Action Plan on Climate Change and Human Health records a 0.59°C rise in the state’s annual average temperature between 1951 and 2010 (MoHFW, 2022).

Climate projections under the Assam State Action Plan on Climate Change, Version 2.0 (2021-2030), indicate further warming. Under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the mean maximum temperature is projected to rise by 0.85°C and 1.0°C, respectively, by 2040 compared with the 1981-2010 baseline.

The mean minimum temperature is projected to rise by 0.85°C under RCP 4.5 and 0.95°C under RCP 8.5 during the same period (ACCMS, 2021).

The plan recommends six measures for reducing emissions from mobile air-conditioning systems.

These include improving public transport reliability, comfort and last-mile connectivity to reduce dependence on private vehicles, and developing safe non-motorised transport infrastructure, including shaded dedicated cycling lanes.

It also recommends employer-operated shuttle services to reduce private vehicle use and strengthening refrigerant management throughout a vehicle’s lifecycle.

For public transport fleets, procurement specifications should mandate the use of low-global-warming-potential refrigerants.

The plan calls for a certified workforce to service vehicle air-conditioning systems and prevent refrigerant venting during servicing or scrapping.

It also recommends passive measures to reduce cooling demand inside vehicles, including tinted glazing, insulated roofs and green cover along roads. Low-cost materials such as bamboo and paddy husk are being explored for insulation in shared transport vehicles.

The plan acknowledges limitations arising from gaps in available data.

Data on the state’s total built-up area is neither digitised nor standardised. A few municipal boards shared data that was used to broadly assess growth trends across building types.

For residential buildings, cooling demand for the baseline year 2025 was estimated using appliance penetration data from the National Family Health Survey (2016 and 2021) and the National Sample Survey Organisation (2013 and 2019).

There is no published data on cooling equipment penetration in commercial buildings. Data on cooling and refrigeration assets in the industrial sector was also unavailable, prompting the team to conduct a small sample survey of industries to estimate baseline demand.

The plan describes the lack of robust data as an acknowledged limitation.

Global efforts to reduce the environmental impact of refrigerants include the Montreal Protocol, which phased out ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons and is supporting the phase-down of hydrochlorofluorocarbons.

The Kigali Amendment seeks to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are widely used in cooling systems. India ratified the Kigali Amendment in 2021 and has committed to reducing the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons.