Guwahati: Assam has recorded a 26% below-normal monsoon rainfall so far this season despite battling devastating floods through much of July, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The rainfall deficit highlights the uneven distribution of monsoon precipitation across the state, where prolonged flooding occurred even as overall rainfall remained below normal.
The IMD’s latest data showed that five of the eight Northeastern states received below-normal rainfall during June and July despite weather-related disasters across the region.
Meghalaya recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 58%, followed by Arunachal Pradesh (38%), Manipur (41%), Assam (26%) and Mizoram (24%). Sikkim, Tripura and Nagaland recorded normal rainfall during the two-month period.
The shortfall was more pronounced in June, when Assam received 37% below-normal rainfall. Nagaland recorded a 56% deficit, followed by Arunachal Pradesh (44%), Mizoram (37%) and Tripura (36%). Meghalaya and Manipur were classified under the IMD’s “large deficient” rainfall category, recording deficits of 74% and 71%, respectively.
The broader East and Northeast Meteorological Sub-Division, comprising the eight Northeastern states along with West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand, recorded an overall rainfall deficiency of more than 30% during June and July, the first half of the four-month southwest monsoon season.
According to IMD officials, the southwest monsoon reached substantial parts of the Northeast on June 7, two days later than its normal onset, and covered the entire region by June 10.
Meteorologists attributed the erratic rainfall pattern to weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs and the influence of El Niño.
Looking ahead, the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country during the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August-September). However, it said East and Northeast India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in many areas during the period.
Meteorologists said a stronger El Niño is expected to develop during the second half of 2026, potentially bringing hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia. They added that adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months would be crucial for Kharif cultivation and replenishing rivers, reservoirs and groundwater resources across the Northeast.