Written by: Kishor Kumar Kalita
Addas and Politics
I want to begin this article with some stories and topics discussed during our addas (hangouts) in the period between the polling for the recent Assam Assembly elections and the declaration of the results. First, let me come to the context of the adda. For nearly two decades, a few of us—advocates, social and political workers, salaried employees associated with NGOs, and college or university professors—have been regularly gathering for addas in various locations, especially in the evenings. To ensure that no one suffers professionally, we usually hold these sessions on the evening before a government holiday or on holidays. These discussions predominantly revolve around regional, national, and international politics.
Since most of the attendees have little connection with Assamese newspapers, magazines, or literature, there is no guarantee when a topic that started in the context of Assam might suddenly drift to Russia, Hungary, Germany, or America. The children of all the friends present at the adda (a couple of whom are also indirectly involved with one or two left-wing parties) do not study in government vernacular-medium schools; yet, they never fall behind in giving advice on how the battle to protect Assamese nationalism and culture should be fought. If someone mentions that the indigenous people of Assam are gradually becoming slaves to aggressive outsider communities linguistically, culturally, politically, and financially, one or two people instantly become vocal in protest. In the heat of the moment, they angrily say, “Understand this: if we put our minds to it, we can take a stand too. We must rise. Haven’t you seen how a handful of Jews have occupied the whole world today? The Jews are at the helm of administration, business, industry, and cinema in the United States of America itself. If the Jews can do it, why can’t we?”
People like us, who lack institutional positions or specific professional identities, are the helpless, silent listeners at such addas. Even though we write regularly for newspapers, because most of our writing is in Assamese, there is not a single reader of our articles or books in that gathering. One or two friends in the teaching profession, whenever possible, mockingly remark, “He writes quite well in Assamese, you know!” When the topic of Jews came up, I mustered some courage and said, “Let alone Karl Marx, Albert Einstein, and Noam Chomsky, half of the Nobel laureates are Jews. Isn’t it better that we don’t compare ourselves with the Jews? In terms of nationalist ideology, have we been able to compete with our neighboring Nagas, Mizos, or Khasis?” Amidst the laughter, giggles, and ridicule, our words carried no weight. The friends, unwilling to take their eyes off their colorful mobile phone screens, finally concluded every adda by discussing new car models or where expensive flats and empty plots of land were available.
Election Surveys and Predictions
Before and after this year’s assembly elections, such addas took place many times. The analysis of every assembly constituency in Assam went on during these sessions. Gathering information from liquor-fueled hangouts with local friends during their two or three visits home every year, the adda companions confidently presented their respective constituency analyses. A friend from Lower Assam who doesn’t know whether Doomdooma comes before Kakopathar or vice versa when travelling from Tinsukia (even today, one or two friends in the Guwahati adda correctly use the word ‘Dhekeri’ in a derogatory sense), or a friend from Upper Assam who has no correct knowledge of whether Bhabanipur comes before Pathsala or Pathsala before Bhabanipur, can still accurately declare who will win in Sadiya this time or who will have the last laugh in Bhabanipur-Sorbhog.
One day, in one such adda, a quiet friend eagerly asked this writer, “How do you conduct election surveys?” I replied that since around 2008–09, I had been listening to the pre-election surveys of a renowned journalist and a university professor from Assam, and I simply assumed that the exact opposite of the party they predicted would form the government might actually happen. The friend asked again, “And now?” I said, “Since 2014, I have assumed that whatever number this adda assigns to the anti-BJP party or alliance, the actual result will be half of that, and every time this has proven to be correct.”
Sadly, this time my prediction missed the mark. In the adda this time, it was confidently stated that the anti-BJP camp would secure 60 to 70 seats. I had assumed 30 to 35. Ultimately, my prediction proved to be wrong.
First Ghostly Context: Tale of the Insurance Companies
Coming to the first ghostly matter. It relates to a few days before the voting for the last assembly elections took place. The strong possibility of the Congress-led opposition alliance forming the government in Assam was already being frequently discussed in our addas. At one point, a friend dreaming left-wing dreams said, “Understand this, the BJP will completely disappear from Upper Assam this time. There is a total undercurrent going on.”
This writer mildly protested and said, “Understand this, my friend, a few days ago I went to a TV talk show. Spokespersons from the Congress, BJP, Raijor Dal, and Assam Jatiya Parishad were present there. I had asked whether a billionaire political party like the BJP could be defeated without money.” (Participating in a debate on India’s electoral reforms in the Rajya Sabha, Congress MP Ajay Maken had stated that since 2004, the BJP’s bank balance had increased from Rs 87.96 crore to Rs 10,107.2 crore, while during the same period, the Indian National Congress’s bank balance had increased from Rs 38.48 crore to Rs 133.97 crore.) Ignoring my comment, the friend said, “You writing folks get zero ground reports. This time, the BJP will be uprooted everywhere.”
This was a couple of days before the assembly election results were declared. I tossed a question about what the election outcome would be to a senior friend who had gathered experience by moving through many organizations and several political parties. Hearing my question, he gravely replied, “Well, let me ask you a question.” I said, “Ask.”
He said, “Let’s assume a multinational insurance company began efforts to expand its business in our state. First, it opened a large office for the entire state. A general manager, manager, finance officer, insurance officer, agents, etc., were appointed in the office, and within a very short time, the company’s offices were established in all districts, sub-divisions, and small and big towns of the state. Since the company was financially powerful, the appointed officers, employees, and agents were paid proper salaries on time, and advertisements for insurance policies costing very little money were plastered in every nook and corner. Even though there remained doubts regarding whether customers would actually receive the insurance money on time after buying a scheme for such a small amount, the company’s officers, employees, and agents frequently contacted customers and brainwashed them, forcing people to buy those schemes. The company even went to many people’s houses and provided the necessary funds to buy the insurance schemes so that the scheme’s popularity would skyrocket.”
As I was about to react after my friend delivered his long speech, he spoke up again, “Wait, the story isn’t over. Now, let’s look at another insurance company. This company, which has an excellent reputation in terms of establishment and fame, is not financially wealthy, so it initially opened just a head office to conduct its insurance business in the state. A very small number of officers, employees, and insurance agents were appointed. Because the company’s capital was limited, only a couple of branch offices were opened, and it tried to sell insurance schemes across the state with a minimal workforce. Although a convincing insurance scheme for customers was announced, advertisements for the scheme did not fill the skies in every corner of the state. Now tell me, which company’s insurance scheme will sell more?” I briefly answered, “The first one’s.”
Second Ghostly Context: The ‘Zubeen’ Issue in Elections
Coming to the second ghostly context. A saying that was on almost everyone’s lips before the assembly elections was this: “This time, ‘Zubeen’ will be a massive issue in the elections. The votes of Zubeen’s fans can turn all election results upside down.” A few questions popped into my mind: who would Zubeen’s fans actually vote for? Against the BJP because Zubeen Garg’s death occurred during the BJP government’s tenure, or in favor of the BJP for imprisoning the accused and starting the trial process in Zubeen Garg’s murder case?
After the election polling, I met many Zubeen fans in various places across Assam. I was certain they were Zubeen fans because parts of songs like “Joy Zubeen Da” or “Mayabini Ratir Bukut” were displayed on their cars, scooters, or bikes. Generally, boys and girls of this age do not want to converse with middle-aged people like us. They consider us outdated in terms of ideology or technological knowledge and prefer to keep their distance. Still, making the effort, I tried to build a rapport with several such fans. I asked them who they thought would win the election.
Fifty percent of them did not want to answer at all. A few said, “We voted for NOTA.” Expressing surprise, I asked, “Why did you press NOTA?” The answers seemed to be right on the tip of their tongues: “You see, they are all the same. After winning the elections, everyone is just looking to loot. And what meaning does our vote even hold? Those who boast long beforehand that they will win seem to win time and time again. That is why we voted for NOTA.”
Several Zubeen fans openly stated that they voted for the BJP because of the various schemes undertaken by the BJP government. Some, however, openly admitted to taking an anti-establishment stance. That is to say, even among those who love Zubeen Garg from the bottom of their hearts, no uniformity in political ideology was observed. Therefore, since the declaration of the election results, I have been thinking: if there was a fierce anti-establishment wave in favor of the Congress-led opposition alliance candidates in Assam, then how were most of the candidates defeated by such huge margins? Or did everyone come out in droves to vote merely to save the BJP government and their own respective schemes?
Mystery of Predictions
Finally, right before the elections, the Chief Minister of Assam, much like he had done in previous elections, predicted this time as well that the BJP-led NDA would get 90 to 100 seats. The AIUDF would get 5 to 6 seats, Raijor Dal would get one seat, and Assam Jatiya Parishad would not get a single seat. Those who research predictions should pay attention to how such a prophecy by the Honorable Chief Minister matched almost exactly. How the predictions of some people from the ruling party match so perfectly against the backdrop of elections is undoubtedly a subject worthy of research.