The political instability and civil war in Myanmar have significantly impacted its neighbouring countries, including India, especially the Northeastern region, ranging from refugee issues to the threat to its national security. Since the Military staged the coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2023, over 60,000 nationals of the neighboring country have fled to India, particularly Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland.
The drugs, arms, and other illegal activities have increased drastically in some northeastern states, along with the conflict in Myanmar and throughout its Indo-Myanmar border. More importantly, India’s Act East Policy, which aims to connect its Northeastern regions to East Asia, and its Kaladan Multimodal Project in Paletwa, Chin State, for the economic integration between its mainland and Northeast, and Northeast and East Asia has been entirely disrupted by the armed conflicts mainly in Chin state, and Rakhine state in Myanmar.
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India’s policy seems to have many loopholes regarding its approach towards Myanmar’s ongoing conflict. Myanmar’s complex issues and fast-changing war situation have become challenging for Delhi policymakers. So far, India’s policy and approach towards Myanmar have been the same as its old policy before the military coup, the “wait and watch policy,” i.e., India will engage with the government that controls Naypyidaw, the country’s capital. That belief made India openly continue and engage with the military junta, which India perceives is stronger than the parallel government, the National Unity for Government (NUG), and other opposite groups.
As a result, In 2021, the Home Minister stated in Lok Sabha that the government is doing its best to stop the influx of Myanmar refugees into India, such as border fencing, setting up floodlighting, constructing border posts, ordering border guarding forces, and surveillance, etc, to stop “illegal immigrants” from Myanmar.
Despite the central government’s border restrictions to stop the influx of Myanmar refugees and order to deport them back, the Mizoram government, with the back of civil societies and churches, has refused the order due to the close cultural and ethnic ties between the the Myanmar Mizo (Chin) people and the India Mizo people. This is a strength for some people or a weakness for others of the federal democracy. In this case, we see the importance of the role of the state government in foreign policies and international relations, particularly for the state that shares a border with other countries.
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Mizoram government and Mizo people have done the right thing morally and socially. Accepting their brothers and sisters during their hardships is their moral duty, and they accept and practice it. However, with the acceptance of Myanmar Mizo (Chin) brothers or Myanmar refugees in their state, undesirable social issues are also attached to it. For example, a few days back, we saw a criminal case of four Burmese nationals, non-refugees, who murdered an Indian national in Siaha District, Mizoram, and some other issues. Therefore, it is understandable that it is challenging for India to make the right policies toward Myanmar.
Even though many scholars and analysts suggested that India should review its policy towards Myanmar in the past three years, its Myanmar policy has remained the same. Unfortunately, the conflict in Myanmar has been impacting more its Northeastern regions than the rest of the country, and there needs to be political power for state governments with foreign policy issues and international border-related issues.
Recently, there has been a significant change in the scenario of war conflict and territorial control throughout the Indo-Myanmar border. Before a military coup, the about 1660-kilometre-long international border was under the control of the Myanmar military; however, it is now under the complete control of different revolutionary armed groups. For instance, the Paletwa region, which was under full Myanmar military control, is now under the control of the Arakan Army (AA) and its alliance, Maraland Defense Force (MDF). Therefore, it became necessary for India to review its policy on Myanmar to be able to manage its border.
India can play the two-edged sword diplomatic policy like China, which is engaging with both the military junta as well as some critical ethnic Armed Groups (EAO) along its China- Myanmar border. Now, it is time for India to engage with the Arkan Army (AA) and other armed groups along its border if India wants to operate its Kaladan Multimodal project. On the other hand, it is difficult for India to engage with both the military junta and its opponents as it is not as powerful as China today.
The clock, however, is ticking, and India has to take a call. India did come up with a new policy, i.e., curbing its Free Movement Regime (FMR) and fencing its Myanmar border. However, there has been much criticism on it that it will bring no benefit to India, other than wasting its limited budget, because most of the policies without the cooperation and collaboration of the community people are hardly successful, and also due to its long border with thick vegetation and deep ravine, unlike its border with Bangladesh.
India’s Kaladan Multimodal Project in Paletwa, ChinState, Myanmar.
Concerning this issue, the role of states, which share the international borders with Myanmar, has become equally important as the central government, even though the state governments have not constitutionally given political power concerning neighbouring countries and their conflicts impacting their states and people’s lives. Thus, the state government should raise their voices individually or collectively for an effective policy formulation that affects them.
For example, the members of parliament from the North Eastern States or Civil Society Organizations (CSO) can raise their voices collectively in the central parliament regarding the Myanamar-Border issues or refugee issues, rather than the Mizoram government or other governments alone doing it. That will make it more vocal, potent, and effective for formulating the right policy regarding Myanmar and border issues that impact their states and lives more than the country’s mainland.
It is critical for Mizoram to constantly watch over the political and power dynamics in the Chin State Sagaing region and other parts of Myanmar. While doing so, it is vital for India, especially the Mizoram government, to take constructive political interventions, if necessary, regarding ongoing Chin state political situations and border issues as they will directly or indirectly impact them more if not so. Today, almost 75% of Chin State has been liberated from the military junta and is under the control of Chin Armed Groups, including the Chin National Front (CNF).
Due to the many armed groups with potential territorial disputes, now there are divisions among Chin Armed Groups into two main groups: Chinland Council (CC) led by CNF and Chin Brotherhood Alliances: five major armed groups: Chin National Organization (CNO), Zomi Federation Union (ZFU), Chin National Committee-Mindat, Mara Territorial Council (MTC), and Kanpalet-CDF. This political tussle and power competition between these two groups can lead to armed conflicts, causing many more refugees to flee to Mizoram state again, and its other impacts on India.
Therefore, as a proactive policy, the Mizoram or the Indian governments should guide or support the ongoing revolution for democracy in Chin State and Myanmar to minimize its adverse impacts on India and carry out the moral duty to keep them as their brother and neighbour, which are fighting for freedom from cruel dictatorship, and for their democracy.