Researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have warned that India might record 2.87 lakh COVID-19 cases per day by the end of winter 2021.
The world may witness 249 million cases and 1.8 million deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination, according to the study conducted by the researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management.
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For the findings, the MIT research team used a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, to simultaneously estimate the transmission of COVID-19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people).
The model tracked community transmission, excluding the global travel network and instead separately estimating the date of introduction of patient zero for each country.
Within each country, the core of the model tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered states.
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According to the study, the top 10 countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India, US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France and Germany.
India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus followed by the US (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) Iran (17,000 cases per day), and Indonesia (13,000 cases per day) at the end of winter 2021.
The MIT researchers also said that Infections are 12 times higher and deaths 50 per cent higher than previously reported.
As of Wednesday morning, the overall number of global COVID-19 cases has increased to more than 11.7 million, while the deaths have soared to over 543,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.