Guwahati: After five consecutive years of below-normal monsoon rainfall, the Northeast is likely to witness an improved monsoon season this year, although the outlook remains uneven for Assam, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The IMD’s first-stage seasonal forecast for the June–September monsoon indicates above-normal rainfall activity in parts of the northeastern region, even as much of the rest of the country is expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
“The spatial distribution suggests that below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” according to IMD’s first stage forecast.
Despite the broader positive outlook for the region, the forecast points to a mixed scenario within Assam. Parts of western Assam and some easternmost areas may still experience deficit rainfall during the season. Neighbouring states such as Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram are also likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
The IMD is expected to release its second-stage monsoon forecast towards the end of May, which will provide a more detailed assessment.
At the national level, seasonal rainfall is projected to be around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), based on a combination of dynamical and statistical models.
Climate indicators suggest the possible development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS). El Niño—characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically weakens monsoon rainfall in India.
However, current neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to shift towards a positive phase later in the season. A positive IOD, where the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than the eastern part, is generally considered favourable for rainfall over India and could offset some adverse impacts of El Niño.
Meanwhile, pre-monsoon rainfall activity in Assam has been significantly above normal. The state recorded 166.6 mm of rainfall in March against a normal of 72.6 mm, marking an excess of 129 per cent. From March 1 to April 16, rainfall remained 68 per cent above normal.
The region has endured a prolonged dry spell in recent years. In 2025, East and Northeast India recorded 1,089.9 mm of rainfall, the second lowest in 125 years, after 2013 when rainfall stood at 1,065.7 mm.