Senior officials of the health ministry have predicted that the coronavirus pandemic in India may go in mid-September this year.
According to Dr Anil Kumar, deputy director general (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September.
In his article published in Epidemiology International Journal, Kumar, along with co-author Rupali Roy, have predicted that the pandemic would extinguish in India in mid-September.
Their prediction is based on Bailey’s model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion.
“There is a well-known model called Bailey’s Model. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool. When the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold, then this pandemic will be over,” Kumar said.