Guwahati: India could record an estimated 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with an average year, as a “Super El Niño” pushes temperatures above normal across much of the world, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The projection puts India among the countries expected to face the largest heat-related mortality burden during the six-month period. The report estimates an uncertainty range of ±1,600 deaths around the India figure.
The Climate Impact Lab report titled 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, says global land temperatures are projected to be about 1.2°C above normal during the coming months, with the unusually warm conditions expected to produce 44% more extremely hot days than in a normal year.
The report describes the current El Niño as effectively bringing forward temperatures that climate models would otherwise expect roughly two decades from now.
India among hardest-hit countries
India ranks fourth globally in the report’s list of countries with the highest projected additional heat-related deaths over the six-month period, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan.
The monthly projection for India shows the heat-related mortality burden rising during the period, with the highest levels expected towards the later months of the forecast.
The report estimates that India could see about 7,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone, compared with the 1996-2025 average.
It also warns that the impact will not necessarily end with the February forecast window. India and Pakistan are expected to see heat-related deaths increase again as the Northern Hemisphere moves towards summer.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first six months of the current El Niño event compared with a normal year. The estimate covers September 2026 to February 2027 and uses 1996-2025 as the baseline.
Warning comes with a window to act
The report says the projections are not intended simply as a forecast of deaths but as a guide for governments and humanitarian agencies to target preventive measures before extreme heat causes further casualties.
Measures identified by the Climate Impact Lab include heat-warning systems, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centres, hydration stations, worker protections and greater health-system capacity.
The analysis draws on temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions worldwide, incorporating differences in local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. These relationships were applied to seasonal temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The report cautions that the figures are projections rather than observed deaths and carry uncertainty. It says the estimates could rise as the unusually warm conditions persist beyond the current six-month forecast window.