Guwahati: A low-pressure area over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea is moving west-northwestwards and is likely to intensify into a depression on September 21 and a deep depression on September 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
In its 8.30 a.m. bulletin on September 20, the IMD said the system is expected to continue moving west-northwestwards and reach the westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coasts around the morning of September 23.
The system formed over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over areas around northern Thailand and adjoining Myanmar.
While earlier forecasts and reports had indicated the possibility of further intensification into a tropical cyclone, the IMD has not yet forecast the system to reach cyclonic-storm intensity. Its latest bulletin projects intensification only up to the deep-depression stage, with any further strengthening dependent on subsequent atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Earlier reports had suggested that the system could become the first tropical cyclone of 2026 if favourable conditions persist. However, the IMD has not confirmed cyclone formation or issued a landfall forecast at this stage.
If the system eventually intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it would be named ‘Arnab’, a name proposed by Bangladesh.