Guwahati: Global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold within the next few years, intensifying climate risks and potentially pushing ecosystems and communities into increasingly dangerous conditions, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The report, Limiting Overshoot, however, says the world can still work towards returning global temperatures below 1.5°C, a key goal under the Paris Agreement, if countries rapidly and consistently cut greenhouse gas emissions.
UNEP identifies an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the most viable option for limiting the scale and duration of warming beyond 1.5°C. The approach would require immediate emissions reductions, including cuts in methane, followed by achieving net-zero emissions and eventually moving towards net-negative emissions.
The report says carefully governed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) would also be required to bring temperatures down after they peak. CDR involves removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it through methods such as afforestation and other removal technologies.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the increasing frequency of extreme heat, wildfires and deadly floods demonstrates the consequences of continued warming.
The UNEP report stresses that the objective should be to keep any period above 1.5°C as limited in both magnitude and duration.
Climate Risks to Intensify Beyond 1.5°C
According to UNEP, even the most optimistic pathway currently projects global warming to peak at around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. Most other scenarios result in higher peak temperatures.
The report warns that climate risks would increase with every additional fraction of a degree and every year spent at elevated temperatures.
Projected consequences include more severe heatwaves and other extreme weather events, ecosystem degradation, threats to food and water security, and growing risks for coastal cities and Small Island Developing States.
Human health, infrastructure, economies and natural systems are also expected to face increasing damage as warming intensifies.
UNEP further warns that prolonged and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. These include the destabilisation of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a major ocean circulation system that influences global climate patterns.
Some of these changes could occur abruptly, while others could build progressively over decades.
Emissions Cuts and Adaptation Needed Together
The report calls for accelerated global action to keep warming as close as possible to the 1.5°C threshold.
Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuels, would need to be accompanied by stronger adaptation measures to protect communities, economies and infrastructure from climate impacts that are already occurring.
UNEP says mitigation and adaptation should advance together because efforts in one area can strengthen the other. Measures that deliver both benefits, including nature-based cooling solutions, should be prioritised.
The report also highlights potential benefits of moving away from fossil fuels, including improved air quality, better public health, lower energy costs and wider access to electricity.
Carbon Removal Cannot Replace Emissions Cuts
UNEP emphasises that carbon dioxide removal should supplement, rather than replace, deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The report says achieving net-zero should be viewed as a milestone towards net-negative emissions rather than the endpoint of climate action.
Carbon removal could contribute to bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C only if peak warming remains well below 2°C and remaining emissions are substantially reduced.
The report also calls for strong governance frameworks for carbon removal to address concerns over environmental integrity, equity and the scale of deployment.
Climate Action Requires Global Cooperation
UNEP identifies political commitment, effective policies, multilateral cooperation, inclusive governance and adequate financing as critical conditions for limiting warming.
It also stresses that climate action must be guided by equity and justice, with countries that have contributed more to historical emissions expected to move faster and adopt more ambitious measures.
At the same time, the report warns that some consequences of climate change may be irreversible even if the world eventually succeeds in returning temperatures below 1.5°C.
Communities could face permanent changes to their environments, livelihoods and living conditions, potentially forcing some populations to relocate.
Such changes could create difficult questions around climate justice, political legitimacy and the distribution of resources and decision-making power, requiring more inclusive governance mechanisms.
UNEP’s assessment ultimately argues that the possibility of returning below 1.5°C remains open, but the window for achieving it is narrowing. Delaying action would increase the magnitude and duration of the overshoot and make both climate adaptation and eventual temperature reduction more difficult and costly.