Guwahati: The Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) on Thursday strongly criticised exit poll projections, rejecting predictions of a large victory for the BJP-led alliance and calling them “inaccurate” and “politically influenced.”
The party said the actual election outcome would be very different from what has been shown in media forecasts.
Speaking at a press conference ahead of the 2026 Assam Assembly election results, AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi said exit polls have often failed in the past. He pointed out that more than 57% of such predictions in India since 1996 have turned out to be wrong.
Gogoi said exit polls should not be treated as final outcomes, describing them as “uncertain estimates” that frequently miss the mark. He referred to several past elections, including the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, where predictions did not match results, as well as the 2014 and 2024 general elections where forecasts were inaccurate.
He also cited state elections in Delhi (2015), Bihar (2020), West Bengal (2021), Himachal Pradesh (2022), and Goa (2022), saying actual results differed widely from projections. According to him, this reflects a repeated failure to understand voter sentiment.
Gogoi further alleged that exit poll errors are not only technical but also shaped by political and commercial interests. He claimed that some media organisations try to influence public perception in favour of the ruling party.
He added that several news channels operate with bias and use exit polls to create a perception of a “wave,” which can also influence the atmosphere before counting. He also accused media houses of being under corporate pressure, saying financial interests often affect projections.
According to him, sensational reporting and exaggerated predictions come from competition for viewership rather than actual data. He also pointed to limitations in survey methods, including sampling issues and voters, especially in rural areas, hesitating to reveal their choices.
The party said Assam’s diverse social structure and complex alliance patterns make accurate forecasting difficult, as caste dynamics, community factors, and last-minute shifts are hard to capture in surveys.
AJP general secretary Jagadish Bhuyan said the political situation in 2026 is very different from 2021. He said the opposition is now more united, while the ruling alliance is facing internal disagreements.
He also claimed there is strong anti-incumbency sentiment, which exit polls have failed to capture. Bhuyan said real voter behaviour cannot be assessed from media studios.
The party expressed confidence that actual results will differ from predictions once counting is completed. It urged people not to rely on exit polls, calling them “media projections” and not the final mandate. The AJP added that the real verdict will be reflected in the EVM count on May 4.